A researcher is trying to determine the appropriate order of an ARMA model to describe some actua 1 answer below »
A researcher is trying to determine the appropriate order of an ARMA model to describe some actual data, with 200 observations available. She has the following figures for the log of the estimated residual
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A researcher is trying to determine the appropriate order of an ARMA model to describe some actua
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variance (i.e. log ( ˆ σ2)) for various candidate models. She has assumed that an order greater than (3,3) should not be necessary to model the dynamics of the data. What is the ‘optimal’ model order?
ARMA(p,q) 
log( ˆσ2) 
model order 

(0,0) 
0.932 
(1,0) 
0.864 
(0,1) 
0.902 
(1,1) 
0.836 
(2,1) 
0.801 
(1,2) 
0.821 
(2,2) 
0.789 
(3,2) 
0.773 
(2,3) 
0.782 
(3,3) 
0.764 